Why Forecast?

For many, the default assumption is that the future will mirror the present, perhaps with some influence from the recent past. This passive stance, while common and occasionally effective, can be risky—especially during periods of significant change.

To Forecast, Or Not To Forecast?

We all make forecasts about the future whether we are willing to admit it or not.

It is undeniable that the choices we make are shaped by our expectations of the future. Whether consciously acknowledged or not, our outlook on what lies ahead influences every decision. Some people may choose to disregard this perspective, assuming the future will closely resemble the present. It is still a forecast. Extrapolating the present into the future may offer a sense of comfort, but such an approach can us leave us exposed to, and unprepared for change.

Many people attempt to define the future based on the prevailing opinions of those around them, adopting what is known as the ‘consensus view’. Decades of examining consensus forecasts reveal that they seldom deviate significantly from current circumstances, and, when they do, often miss the mark. We has a long history of underestimating future change.

Relying on commonly accepted wisdom is a defensive posture which seldom leads to meaningful success or improved decision making, particularly when the forces of change are upon us.