EQ Mission

EQ Economics is a specialist economic research firm supporting the planning and decision-making processes of our clients with independent economic analysis and forecasting. The firm was established in 2016 by Australian economist Warren Hogan.

We deliver economic insights and analysis through traditional reports, live virtual briefings, presentations, workshops and on this website, which is curated and updated to give clients readily accessible real-time insights into the Australian economy and markets.

EQ Economics provides a sensible view of what is happening in the Australian economy, a willingness to understand the changing nature of the economy, to be open minded about really matters for our understanding of the business operating environment.

Our Vision of the Future Drives the EQ Mission

We are on the cusp of an unprecedented improvement in living standards across the global community driven by the next phase of the information revolution interacting with a major demographic turning point impacting just about every nation around the world.

EQ Proposition One:

We are at the start of the most significant transformation of society in generations, as computing capability supercharges innovation and revolutionises the economy and business.

These will result in the biggest lift in living standards ever seen in a single generation.

The sense that something could go wrong is palpable, but history shows that risks will be managed.

We have demonstrated the capacity to manage existential threats and risks. There will be costs; and it won’t be perfect, but the future is bright.

This future state represents a big change from where we are today. The forces of change are at the heart of the uncertainty we have been experiencing since the recovery from the global pandemic of 2020. It is the uncertainty that is creating so much anxiety in our community.

As US president Roosevelt said at the depths of the great depression in 1933: “All we have to fear, is fear itself.”

We are experiencing one of the great transformation of our economy and society.

EQ Proposition Two:

An Economic Crisis That Triggers Change is a Key Risk

Throughout history the transition to a new regime is accelerated by a disruptive financial crisis that re-allocates labour and capital. People resist change only to have it thrust upon them. Accepting new realities is key to leadership.

Australia does not appear to be well placed for what is ahead. Recession free for 30 years, Australia is not match fit for the social and industrial transformation underway.

Government is playing much too big a role in our community, our ability to reorientate our workforce is constrained by rules and regulations. And as an economy, our world leading levels of household debt leave us exposed to economic policy mistakes.

But Australia will find a way as it always has. Australia will continue to shine over the long-term.

Our nation and our economy are characterised by resources and resourcefulness, and our population potential will underpin long-term economic growth.

Change is upon us, driving uncertainty but offering a better future

The world is changing in profound ways. It is affecting everything while reshaping the economic and business operating environment around the world. No one is immune to this change. For businesses it can be a source of incredible opportunity as well as genuine threat.

Demographics, technology and the natural environment are three critical elements that shapes the structural economic backdrop and are central to understanding the business landscape of the future. These are the secular forces igniting a new economy and the hope of a better society.

For three decades before the pandemic, structural change occurred at a slow and steady pace. Demographic trends maintained a consistent direction and exhibited persistent influence.

But that is no longer the case. Structural change is happening across society, be it demographic shifts, technological innovation or environmental concerns. This is creating uncertainty about the future and sparking economic and financial volatility.

And we are just at the start of this process.

The Shifting Economic Landscape: New Complex Problems for Business Leaders to Navigate

Since the recession of the early 1990s, business leaders in Australia were able to concentrate almost exclusively on their business operations: staff, customers, products, and competitors. The external operating environment was favourable. A golden era of economic reform, globalisation and the rise of China’s resource hungry economy provided favourable economic conditions that helped businesses to thrive.

Throughout the 1990s and right up to the global pandemic, Australia’s business leaders did not need to allocate significant time or resources monitoring wider economic developments. The prevailing macroeconomic backdrop provided tailwinds. For business leaders, the main game was ensuring that their operations were humming. It was all about the ‘rider’; the ‘waves’ were fantastic.

“The rider and the wave metaphor serves as a reminder to be constantly aware of the external forces shaping your industry and to be flexible enough to ride these powerful currents toward a successful outcome” – Microsoft Co-Pilot

The ‘rider’ will always be the most important factor in business success, but the ‘wave’ matters more than ever.

While there are many positive features of the emerging economy, the 2020s will be an era of elevated volatility and uncertainty as the economy transitions to a new technological and demographic framework. There will be flurries, some crosswinds and of course the occasional headwind.

The whole world is undergoing profound changes that are not yet fully understood; the scale of these shifts is underestimated. This evolving landscape generates uncertainty and presents new, complex problems for business leaders to factor into their thinking. As a result, operating a business has become more demanding, with the broader economic context now presenting a mix of opportunities, risks and threats for the business leader to manage.