- We have a unique analytical and forecasting process that explicitly integrates non-economic factors into our economic assessments and projections
- EQ Economics is free of political or financial bias. Our focus is squarely on the ‘So What?” for business leaders and likely future outcomes
- We are engaged with the economy, always taking real time insights from the coalface of the economy and applying them to our traditional analytical and forecasting techniques
Traditional forecasting techniques are increasingly challenged by a rapidly evolving economy. Economic assessment and forecasting have always been difficult tasks, but the post-pandemic world presents new complexities. Major forces are reshaping the economy, making conventional models and analytics less reliable. This does not mean that there has been a malfunctioning of our economic system or an economy that is necessarily on the wrong path. Rather, it highlights the need for broader thinking, incorporation of non-economic factors and a willingness to move beyond rigid theoretical frameworks and conventional approaches.
Effective economic analysis and forecasting increasingly depend on a blend of analytical techniques, solid theoretical grounding, and meaningful engagement with real-world conditions. Forecasters must be agile, open-minded, and, above all, skilled in risk management.
Embracing risk is a core aspect of managing it. At EQ Economics, traditional economic forecasting methods are enhanced with a wider array of analytical inputs to better reflect the complexities of the current environment.
Through our engagement with business leaders, we have identified trust as a pivotal factor when seeking guidance on future developments. Our forecasts and assessments remain fully independent of commercial or political interests. Although we consider the political landscape in our analysis, our focus is always on the most probable outcome and its implications for business.
Our guiding forecasting principle is ‘Best Endeavours’—we are committed to understanding the future, allowing our clients to make informed decisions for their organisations.
Understanding Economic Forces and Embracing Uncertainty
Although the future cannot be predicted with certainty, it is possible to develop a solid understanding of the forces shaping the economy, and the variety of potential pathways the economy may follow.
Flexibility in projections and a willingness to revise opinions are critical. Many forecasters develop a single outlook and then spend their time seeking validation for that view, rather than responding to new information. This approach does not serve decision makers well.
Motivated reasoning and the pursuit of validation contradict scientific method, which is based on the ongoing questioning of assumptions and foundational propositions.
Achieving a better understanding of the economy requires relentless scrutiny of our assessments, with a focus on identifying potential errors rather than seeking confirmation. Perfection is unattainable; the goal is to assess likely future outcomes and minimise significant forecasting errors.
In this environment, the value of honest and ethical economic assessment from a credible and independent source is greater than ever.